Gold Export Business

Australian analyst positive on gold, lists ASX gold juniors and mid-tier companies' progress

A study on gold production shows unhedged Australian producers as a clear winner with the gold price having risen 32% in the past month in Australian dollar terms as opposed to the American Greenback.

A December quarter survey by Sydney-based Resource Capital Research (RCR) painted a positive picture for gold production in the current global economic crisis with gold becoming increasingly attractive relative to low yield cash and bonds.

The report forecast that gold will trade in a range of $US750-$US850/ounce in the next few months but said a "breakout" was possible in the first quarter of 2009 should the $US weaken in that period.

Established gold producers have suffered significant declines in their share price in the past three months despite improved fundamentals and while Australian producers have experienced a 32% rise in $A terms, Canada in the same period, in $C denominated terms, had a rise of only 5% while for South Africans the gold price in Rand terms was down 4%.

The RCR" study covers 20 global gold exploration and development companies operating in Australia, Canada, the United States and also based in the United Kingdom.

"The key factor for gold in recent months is not that it has not appreciated significantly, but that it has essentially held its value in a period of a strong US dollar, decreasing inflationary expectations, collapsing oil and commodity prices and aggressive hedge fund selling," RCR said.

Recently released data for the third quarter of 2008 show investment demand for gold rose strongly during the period (up 18% on 3Q08), with record quarterly inflows into Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) of 150 tonnes, supplemented by further growth in coin and bar demand. Additionally, jewellery demand -- mainly from India and China(cnmining) -- has remained strong, up 8% on previous year. (In Perth, media reports indicate the Perth Mint - a major gold buyer and seller in Australasia and South East Asia, has had to restrict sales because of a dramatic increase in demand for gold coins and jewellery).

"It is apparent that this strong increase in investment demand has been sufficient to absorb widespread disinvestment arising from hedge fund selling, margin calls and unwinding of long gold/short dollar contracts.

"We believe that shrinking cash and bond yields and the recent rise in the gold price will underpin further investment interest in gold as a safe haven and store of value."

RCR considers the near-term outlook for the gold price remains closely tied to investment demand from safe haven buying, which has underpinned the price in recent months and is looking "increasingly strong." If gold disinvestment tails off there is potential for further price gains.

"There is additional upside for a major gold price breakout should the US dollar lose its current safe haven currency status, through a further decline in the US economic outlook relative to other world economies in 2009."  the report said.

ASX-listed mid tier and junior gold companies advancing Australian and international projects are:

A1 Minerals Ltd (AAM): Advancing a feasibility for its 1 million oz Brightstar project near Laverton in Western Australia (WA), with the aim of producing by 3Q09 with a with a low risk, low capex approach and 30,000 oz per annum, ramping to 50,000 oz pa within two years.

Adamus Resources Ltd (ADU): Has reached a critical stage of development at its advanced 2 M oz Southern Ashanti gold project in Ghana, with a capex $US87 M required for construction. A BFS indicates production of 100,000 oz pa, with anticipated operating costs of $US350-450/oz.

Alkane Resources Ltd (ALK): Expects an initial resource at the Caloma deposit on the Tomingley project in New South Wales this quarter and has a blueprint to produce 1 M oz pa by mid 2010.

Andean Resources Ltd (AND): A pre-feasibility study on the 100% owned Cerro Negro gold project in Argentina indicates potential for low-cost production by 2010. Cash costs were projected at $US198/oz, with average production over six years at 220,000 oz pa. The project is continuing to intercept new high grade zones (>10g/t Au) and expand resources.

Avoca Resources Ltd (AVO):  Production has reached the 1 Mtpa nameplate processing rate at its new Trident mine in WA, with strong recoveries (96.7%). Target production is between 160,000-190,000 oz pa. Current resource is 1.45 M oz with exploration upside to 4 M oz on a 6 km of prospective strike.

Beaconsfield Gold NL (BCD): Has returned to full production at the high grade (9.8 g/t) Beaconsfield mine in Tasmania. The production rate of +80,000 oz pa is targeted, with remote mining methods now well established. The resource is defined to 1,290m with potential for depth extensions to 2,000m to add six more years.

Catalpa Resources Ltd (CAH): Is targeting production early in 2010 to be a >100,000 oz pa producer from its Edna May project in WA's eastern wheatbelt. CAH is confident of securing project financing.

Citigold Corporation Ltd (CTO):  It controls the historic Charters Towers goldfield in Queensland. Current resource is 10 M oz grading 14 g/t, and has set target production of 310,000 oz pa by late 2012. The company recently raised $A35 M ($US22.9 M).

Hill End Gold Ltd (HEG): Production is moving to full scale mining on the high grade Reward mine in the Hill End goldfield in NSW. The Reward shaft was completed November and has near-term production potential for 25,000-50,000 oz pa. The long-term resource target for the field is 5 M oz.

Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd (KCN): RCR forecasts strong production growth with output of 74,000 oz projected for 2008 and 180,000 oz by 2011, despite lowering of resource grades. The "big news" is the exciting Chokdee gold find 20 km north of the company's Chatree gold mine in Thailand, where there is a current 3.2 M oz resource.

Navigator Resources Ltd (NAV): Plans to be in production at its Leonora gold project in WA by late 2009. A 1 Mtpa milling operation is aiming to produce about 100,000 oz pa gold. The key is projected low capex and opex through initial treatment of shallow soft oxide ore.

North Queensland Metals Ltd (NQM): The company purchased 60% of the 70-80,000 oz pa Pajingo gold operation in north Queensland and is undertaking resource drilling on this mature operation to extend Pajingo's current five years life.

Tasman Goldfields Ltd (TGX); Is undertaking advanced exploration on the Challenger gold project in NSW and is continuing exploration on the big Malaumanda copper-gold project in Papua New Guinea.